|Table of Contents|

The construction and value research of risk prediction model for malignant outcome of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia based on vaginal microbial flora

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2024 05
Page:
908-913
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
The construction and value research of risk prediction model for malignant outcome of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia based on vaginal microbial flora
Author(s):
JIN Jiao; LIU Yun; WEN Zhifa; FENG Xiaodan
Department of Clinical Laboratory,Maternity Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital,Jiangsu Nanjing 210004,China.
Keywords:
cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; malignant outcome; vaginal microbial flora; risk prediction model
PACS:
R737.33
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2024.05.021
Abstract:
Objective:To explorethe risk factors of malignant outcome of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia(CIN),construct a risk prediction model and explore its clinical application value.Methods:A total of 112 CIN patients admitted to our hospital from January 2017 to October 2019 were selected as the study subjects.They were divided into CIN malignant outcome group(n=56) and CIN group(n=56).The distribution characteristics of vaginal microbiota were analyzed through the Illumina MiSeq platform.The risk factors for CIN malignant outcomes were identified using multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and risk prediction model was constructed and transformed into a risk scoring system.The fitting degree and predictive value of the risk prediction model were evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve.Internal and external validation of the model was conducted using the 10-fold crossover method.Results:The flora abundance of gardnerella,prevotella,peptoniphilus,ureaplasmaurealyticum and sneathia in CIN malignant outcome group was significantly higher than that in CIN group,and the characteristic flora was ureaplasmaurealyticum and prevotella.Comparison of high-risk HPV persistent infection,ratio of lesion area to cervical area,glandular involvement,ureaplasmaurealyticum and prevotella distribution between the two groups showed statistically significant differences(χ2=22.501,9.190,17.308,4.356,4.323,all P＜0.05).Persistent infection of high-risk HPV,ratio of lesion area to cervical area≥2/3,gland involvement,ureaplasmaurealyticum and prevotella infection were risk factors for malignant prognosis of CIN(all P＜0.05).The area under the ROC in the model group was 0.809［95%CI(0.724~0.877),P＜0.001］,and the area under the ROC in the validation group was 0.820［95%CI(0.736~0.886),P＜0.001］.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model group had a good fit(χ2=4.328 3,P=0.228 1),and the validation group had a good fit(χ2=6.330 7,P=0.175 8).Conclusion:The risk prediction model of CIN malignant outcome based on vaginal microbial flora has good predictive effect and can provide targeted guidance value for the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer.

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江苏省南京市医学科技发展计划项目（编号：YKK20137）
Last Update: 2024-01-30