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Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:

2024 24

Page:

4624-4631

Research Field:

Publishing date:

Info

Title:

Establishment and validation of nomogram model of gastric cancer risk in patients with chronic gastritis

Author(s):

GAO Mengjie¹; 2; GUO Qiqi¹; 2; SHEN Xin¹; 2; CAO Jiaojiao¹; 2; WANG Tengteng¹; 3; SHI Yongquan¹

1.Department of Gastroenterology,Xijing Hospital,Air Force Medical University,Shaanxi Xi'an 710032,China;2.Postgraduate Department of Xi'an Medical University,Shaanxi Xi'an 710021,China;3.Yan'an Medical University,Shaanxi Yan'an 716000,China.

Keywords:

chronic gastritis; nomogram; gastric cancer; gastric xanthoma; mucosal atrophy

PACS:

R735.2

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2024.24.007

Abstract:

Objective:To develop and valide a nomogram model for clinicians to quickly determine the risk of gastric cancer in patients with chronic gastritis.Methods:According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,the demographic data,family history of gastric cancer,gastroscopy and pathological results,Helicobacter pylori infection,and smoking and drinking habits of 837 patients who visited the department of gastroenterology of our hospital from September 2022 to September 2023 were collected.The patients were randomly divided into training group (586 cases) and validation group (251 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and minimum absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) were used to screen the risk factors for gastric cancer in patients with chronic gastritis based on the training set data.Nomogram models were built using R programming language and validated internally.The ROC curve,calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram model.Results:A total of 837 patients were included in the study,including 586 cases in the training set (292 cases of chronic gastritis and 294 cases of gastric cancer) and 251 cases of validation set (130 cases of chronic gastritis and 121 cases of gastric cancer).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that male sex,age≥50 years old,rural residence,family history of gastric cancer,gastric xanthoma,moderate to severe gastric mucosal atrophy,gastric ulcer,and Helicobacter pylori infection were independent risk factors for gastric cancer in patients with chronic gastritis.The AUC of the training and validation sets of the model was 0.853(95%CI 0.822~0.884) and 0.886(95%CI 0.843~0.928),respectively,indicating that the model had good accuracy.The calibration curve overlapped with the standard curve without obvious deviation,indicating that the model had good consistency,and the decision curve analysis suggested that the model had potential clinical application value.Conclusion:The nomogram prediction model based on the risk factors of male,age≥50 years old,rural residence,family history of gastric cancer,gastric xanthoma,moderate to severe gastric mucosal atrophy,gastric ulcer,and Helicobacter pylori infection has good accuracy and distinguishing ability,and has certain clinical reference value for predicting the risk of gastric cancer in patients with chronic gastritis.

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Memo

Memo:

陕西省重点研发计划（编号：2023-ZDLSF-35）

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