|Table of Contents|

Analysis of risk factors of moderate and severe acute radiation esophagitis in esophageal cancer patients underwent radiotherapy and construction of prediction model

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2023 16
Page:
3032-3037
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis of risk factors of moderate and severe acute radiation esophagitis in esophageal cancer patients underwent radiotherapy and construction of prediction model
Author(s):
YE Haizhu; PENG Xiaobao; YUAN Huaqin; HU Hongxia; CHEN Wenqiang
Department of Oncology,Nanjing Gaochun People's Hospital,Jiangsu Nanjing 211300,China.
Keywords:
esophageal cancer; moderate and severe acute radiation esophagitis; nomogram
PACS:
R735.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2023.16.016
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of moderate and severe acute radiation esophagitis (MSARE) in patients with esophageal cancer and construct a risk prediction nomogram model.Methods:From January 2019 to September 2022,82 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent radiotherapy in our hospital were divided into occurrence group (32 cases) and non-occurrence group (50 cases) according to the presence or absence of MSARE.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors for the occurrence of MSARE.These factors were used to construct a nomogram prediction model and validate the discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility of the model.Results:Multivariate Logistic analysis showed tumor location (lower:OR=0.1,95%CI:0.01~0.9,P=0.04),N stage (N2+N3:OR=3.71,95%CI:0.99~13.88,P=0.049),diabetes (OR=6.63,95%CI:1.48~29.67,P=0.013),hypertension (OR=5.19,95%CI:1.22~22.16,P=0.026),concurrent chemotherapy (OR=5.86,95%CI:1.43~23.99,P=0.014) and length of esophageal irradiation (OR=1.33,95%CI:1.07~1.65,P=0.011) were independent risk factors for the development of MSARE,and nomogram models were successfully constructed using these factors.The area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.888,95%CI:0.815~0.961) indicated that the model had high prediction accuracy.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve.The model had good calibration ability.The decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that a threshold of approximately 0.06 to 1 had the largest margin of benefit for the model and that the model was clinically useful.Conclusion:We successfully constructed a MSARE risk prediction model for esophageal cancer patients,with good model efficacy,which is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk MSARE patients early,so as to prevent and improve treatment plans early.

References:

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Memo

Memo:
江苏大学医学临床科技发展基金项目(编号：JLY20160187)
Last Update: 1900-01-01