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Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:

2023 12

Page:

2314-2322

Research Field:

Publishing date:

Info

Title:

Cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in China:Trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions

Author(s):

LI Zhixue¹; LIU Zheng¹; MA Yan¹; GUO Yanfang¹; WANG Dewang¹; ZHAO Rencheng¹; YUAN Qing¹; LI Zhihao²; XU Ying¹

1.Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Shenzhen Baoan Center for Chronic Diseases Control,Guangdong Shenzhen 518101,China；2.Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Southern Medical University,Guangdong Guangzhou 510515,China.

Keywords:

cancer; excess body weight; disease burden; DALYs; attribution; prediction

PACS:

R73-31

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2023.12.025

Abstract:

Objective:To analyze the long-term trend of cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in the China from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions for the next decade,in order to provide a reference for the prevention and control of cancer.Methods:Based the data from the 2019 global burden of disease (GBD),we used disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to represent the disease burden of cancer.The Joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in China,and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the burden over the next decade.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the DALYs of cancer attribute to excess body weight shown a significant increasing trend,and the average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was 3.87%.According to subgroup analysis,the age-standardized DALYs rates of liver cancer,esophageal cancer and female uterine cancer showed an increasing trend since 2016.Other types of cancers showed an a continuous upward trend.In the next decade of prediction,the age-standardized DALYs rates of cancers attributable to excess body weight continued to increase for different types of cancer.The top 5 of DALYs burden were esophageal cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer and kidney cancer for male,and were breast cancer,esophageal cancer,uterine cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer for female.In 1990 and 2019,the peak age of DALYs rates in male was both at 70~<75 years old,but changed from 65~<70 years old to 70~<75 years old in female.Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019 and in the next decade,the cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in China has generally been on the rise,with esophageal cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,kidney cancer in male,and breast cancer,esophageal cancer,uterine cancer,liver cancer,and colorectal cancer in female bearing the highest disease burden.Middle-aged and elderly as well as male people should be the focus populations of attention.There is an urgent need for comprehensive interventions to reduce the associated cancer burden of excess body weight.

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Memo

Memo:

深圳市科创委基础研究面上项目（编号：JCYJ20210324125202006）

Common functions

Last Update: 1900-01-01