|Table of Contents|

Analysis and prediction of the incidence trend of Chinese thyroid cancer

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2023 10
Page:
1917-1923
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis and prediction of the incidence trend of Chinese thyroid cancer
Author(s):
CUI Jing1; ZHANG Qian2; ZHANG Yi1
1.Hengshui City People's Hospital,Hebei Hengshui 053000,China;2.Hengshui Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hebei Hengshui 053000,China.
Keywords:
KELM model; SVR model; thyroid cancer; coupled model; kernel function; extreme learning machine
PACS:
R736.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2023.10.028
Abstract:
Objective:Through analysis of incidence of thyroid cancer in different groups in my country from 2003 to 2017,the KELM-SVR coupling model was used to model and predict the incidence of thyroid cancer from 2018 to 2022,and provide a useful supplement for the prevention and treatment of thyroid cancer.Methods:Collect the national total,male,female,urban and rural populations' incidence of thyroid cancer from 2003 to 2017.Establish KELM,SVR and KELM-SVR models,and select the KELM-SVR coupling model with the highest accuracy based on MRE to predict the incidence of different thyroid cancers from 2018 to 2022.Results:The KELM-SVR coupled model was superior to the KELM and SVR models in predicting the incidence of five different thyroid cancers.The average MRE of the KELM,SVR,and KELM-SVR models was 7.58%,6.59%,and 5.74%,respectively.The incidence of thyroid disease in my country was 17.07/100 000,18.40/100 000,19.80/100 000,21.23/100 000,and 22.71/100 000 from 2018 to 2022.Conclusion:The incidence of thyroid cancer is on a steady upward trend,and the incidence of thyroid cancer is the highest in women and urban populations.The KELM-SVR coupled model can improve the prediction accuracy of a single model and provide a stable and reliable method for predicting the incidence of various thyroid cancers.

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Memo

Memo:
河北省医学科学研究重点课题（编号：20181582）
Last Update: 1900-01-01