|Table of Contents|

Survival rate and long-term change trend of NHL in Qidong from 1972 to 2016

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2023 05
Page:
937-942
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Survival rate and long-term change trend of NHL in Qidong from 1972 to 2016
Author(s):
XU Yuanyou; ZHANG Yonghui; DING Lulu; CHEN Yongsheng; WANG Jun; CHEN Jianguo; ZHU Jian; XU Xiangdong
Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,the Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Jiangsu Qidong 226200,China.
Keywords:
NHL; cancer registration; survival rate; trends; Qidong
PACS:
R733.4
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2023.05.029
Abstract:
Objective：To analyze the survival rate of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma（NHL) in the whole population in Qidong from 1972 to 2016,and to provide a basis for prognosis evaluation and prevention.Methods:Survival outcomes of 1 990 NHL registered cases were followed up until December 31,2021.The Hakulinen method in SURV3.01 software was used to calculate the observed survival rate（OSR) and relative survival rate（RSR),and the Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical testing.Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change（APC) of NHL survival rate,and time trend analysis was performed on the overall survival rate,gender-specific and age-specific survival rate of NHL to determine whether the long-term trend change of the rate was statistically significant.SAS9.2 software was used to predict the trend of NHL survival rate by using the ARIMA model in time series analysis.Results:From 1972 to 2016,the OSR of NHL in Qidong city in 1,5 and 10 years was 39.00%,20.39% and 15.53%.The RSR in 1,5 and 10 years was 40.18%,23.82% and 21.46%.Analysis of the survival rate in each period from 1972 to 2016,1-RSR increased from 36.66% in 1972-1976 to 55.21% in 2012-2016,and 5-RSR increased from 12.50% in 1972-1976 to 36.56% in 2012-2016,10-RSR increased from 10.92% in 1972-1976 to 22.43% in 2007-2011,the RSR rising trend in the nine periods was statistically significant（χ2=173.74,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR of males was 21.55%,and the 5-year RSR of females was 27.12%.There was no significant difference in RSR between males and females（χ2=11.54,P=0.399).The 5-year RSRs of 35~44 years old,45~54 years old,55~64 years old,65~74 years old and ≥75 years old were 23.62%,23.69%,27.87%,22.93% and 14.23%.The difference in RSR was statistically significant（χ2=75.86,P<0.001).The APC results showed that the APC of Qidong NHL 5-RSR was 3.40%（t=5.75,P＜0.001),of which the male APC was 4.03%（t=4.33,P＜0.001),and the female APC was 7.49%（t=7.23,P＜0.001),the upward trend was statistically significant.Long-term trend analysis of age-specific 5-RSR from 1972 to 2016,APC of 35~44 years old was 1.68%（t=2.62,P=0.034),and APC of 45~54 years old was 6.26%（t=4.25,P=0.004）,APC of 55~64 years old was 4.30%（t=5.84,P=0.001),APC of 65~74 years old was 5.62%（t=3.70,P=0.008),APC of ≥75 years old was 8.84%（t=4.68,P=0.002),the upward trend was statistically significant.The survival rate prediction results show that by 2026,the 5-year OSR of NHL will increase to 39.15%,and the 5-year RSR will increase to 46.44%.Conclusion:In the past 45 years(1972 to 2016),the survival rate of NHL in the whole population of Qidong city has been greatly improved,but there is still room for improvement.We should continue to pay attention to the prevention and treatment of NHL.

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2022年江苏省南通市科技计划项目(编号：JCZ2022050)
Last Update: 2023-01-31