|Table of Contents|

Trend analysis and GM(1，1) model prediction of the cancer incidence and mortality in China from 2011 to 2016

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2023 05
Page:
931-936
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Trend analysis and GM(1，1) model prediction of the cancer incidence and mortality in China from 2011 to 2016
Author(s):
CAI Hongxia1; LIU Xiaoxia1; 2; ZHANG Wenbin1; 2
1.School of Medicine,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Sichuan Chengdu 610054,China;2.Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute，Sichuan Cancer Center，Sichuan Chengdu 610041,China.
Keywords:
cancer; registry annual report; incidence; mortality; trend analysis; grey prediction model
PACS:
R73-31
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2023.05.028
Abstract:
Objective：To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of cancer in China from 2011 to 2016 and predict the incidence and mortality of cancer between 2017 and 2021.Methods:The cancer data of 2014-2019 China Cancer Registry Annual Report published by the National Cancer Center was collected.The number of registries was analyzed.The incidence and mortality trend between 2011-2016 was analyzed by Joinpoint software and annual rate of change（AAPC) was calculated.The incidence and mortality between 2017 and 2021 was predicted by the gray prediction model.Results:The number of tumor registries included in the China Cancer Registry Annual Report increased from 140 to 487 from 2011 to 2016.The trend of age-standardized incidenceby Chinese standard population（ASR China) and by world standard population（ASR world) of cancer between 2011 and 2016 were downward,and the AAPC values were -0.86%（P＜0.05),-0.91%（P＜0.05),respectively.The age-standardized mortality Chinese standard population（ASR China) and by world standard population（ASR world) of cancer between 2011 and 2016 also were downward,and the AAPC values were -2.22%（P＜0.05) and -2.19%（P＜0.05),respectively.There were significant differences in the trend analysis results of incidence and mortality in each age group between 2011 and 2016.The grey prediction model GM(1,1) predicted that the cancer incidence was 293.27/105 and the mortality was 176.92/105 in 2017.Conclusion:In recent years,the cancer incidence and mortality remained relatively stable high prevalence,and the situation of tumor prevention and control is serious.With the aggravation of population aging,the middle-aged and elderly should be the key population for tumor prevention and control.

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Memo

Memo:
四川省科技基础条件平台重点项目（编号：2019JDPT0008）;四川省“卫生健康数字化发展”专项课题（编号：2021ZXKY06010）
Last Update: 2023-01-31