|Table of Contents|

Nomograms for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2022 03
Page:
416-421
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Nomograms for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma
Author(s):
HUANG Shaojun; ZHONG Jiana; CHEN Hong
Department of Endocrinology,Zhujiang Hospital,Southern Medical University,Guangdong Guangzhou 510282,China.
Keywords:
medullary thyroid carcinoma; nomogram; lymph node metastasis; SEER; risk factors
PACS:
R736.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2022.03.010
Abstract:
Objective:Establishing an appropriate clinical prediction model of lymph node metastasis may provide an individualized treatment to individually predict the probability of lymph node metastasis before surgery.Methods:739 patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma were recruited in the American cancer database of Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results(SEER) database from 2010 to 2015.Randomly divided into training group(n=521) and validation group(n=218).The risk factors for cervical lymph node(CLN) metastasis and lateral cervical lymph node(LCLN) metastasis were analysed via multivariate Logistic regression.Nomograms were drawed based on the multivariate Logistic regression model for clinical prediction.ROC curves and calibration curves were used to analyze the regression model for differentiation and calibration.Results:In the training group，common risk factors associated with CLN metastasis and LCLN metastasis include gender,extrathyroidal extension(ETE),M stage,and tumor multifocality.T stage was a unique risk factor for CLN metastasis,and tumor size was a unique risk factor for LCLN metastasis.The AUC for the CLN and LCLN metastasis nomograms were 0.845(P＜0.001) and 0.795(P＜0.001) in the training group,while 0.803(P＜0.001) and 0.828(P＜0.001) respectively in the validation group.The calibration curves indicate that the good consistency of cervical lymph node metastasis between the actual observation and the model prediction(P＞0.05).Conclusion:Based on the risk factors of lymph node metastasis,nomogram prediction models are constructed to help clinicians to personalize and quantify the likelihood of occult lymph node metastasis before surgery.The nomograms provide auxiliary guidance for patients whether to perform preventive lymph node dissection and determine the scope of the dissection.

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Memo

Memo:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81770835）；国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号：81770835)；广东省重点领域研发计划项目(编号：2019B020230001)
Last Update: 2022-01-02