|Table of Contents|

Analysis of related risk factors and construction of prediction model for perforation in endoscopic mucosal stripping of gastric tumor

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2024 21
Page:
4111-4114
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis of related risk factors and construction of prediction model for perforation in endoscopic mucosal stripping of gastric tumor
Author(s):
ZHU Lin; LU Ning; ZHANG Mingxin
Department of Gastroenterology,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Medical University,Shaanxi Xi'an 710077,China.
Keywords:
gastric tumor; endoscopic mucosal resection; predictive model
PACS:
R735.2
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2024.21.017
Abstract:
Objective:To retrospectively analyze the relevant risk factors that affect perforation during endoscopic mucosal stripping(ESD) for gastric tumors and construct a relevant prediction model.Methods:A total of 486 patients who underwent ESD for gastric tumors from May 2018 to January 2024 were selected as the research subjects.Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen the independent factors that affect perforation during ESD for gastric tumors.ROC curve analysis and plotting were performed using medcalc software to analyze the predictive value of relevant factors.Finally,relevant factors screened were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the risk of perforation during ESD for gastric tumors.Results:Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index,operation time,ulcer scar,and lesion location were all independent risk factors that affect perforation during ESD for gastric tumors.The areas under the ROC curves for operation time,lesion location,body mass index,ulcer scar,and combined detection were 0.758(95%CI:0.718~0.791),0.719(95%CI:0.677~0.758),0.672(95%CI:0.629~0.713),0.733(95%CI:0.692~0.772),and 0.837(95%CI:0.802~0.868),respectively.The combined detection had significantly better predictive value than individual detection.The overall c-index of the constructed prediction model for perforation during ESD for gastric tumors was 0.833(95%CI:0.812~0.859,P＜0.001),and the calibration curve also showed good consistency between predicted values and actual values.Conclusion:Body mass index,operation time,ulcer scar,and lesion location are all independent risk factors that affect perforation during ESD for gastric tumors,and the constructed prediction model for evaluating the incidence of perforation during ESD for gastric tumors has good predictive ability.

References:

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Memo

Memo:
陕西省重点研发计划（编号：2023-YBSF-072）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划（编号：2022JM-502）
Last Update: 2024-09-30