|Table of Contents|

Analysis and prediction of mortality of cervical cancer in China

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2024 05
Page:
927-932
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis and prediction of mortality of cervical cancer in China
Author(s):
ZHANG Li; LI Yinhe
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Hubei University of Chinese Medicine,Hubei Wuhan 430015,China.
Keywords:
cervical cancer; mortality; trend analysis; prediction; average annual percent change
PACS:
R737.33
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2024.05.024
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trend of the mortality of cervical cancer in Chinese women and predict the mortality in the next 10 years.Methods:The crude death of cervical cancer from 2004 to 2017 was obtained from the Chinese Annual Cancer Registry.The Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of the crude death rate of cervical cancer in urban and rural women from 2004 to 2017,and to analyze its trend.Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was established to fit the mortality rates andpredict the crude mortality in the next 10 years.Results:The crude mortality rate of cervical cancer in urban and rural areas increased from 2004 to 2017,and the corresponding AAPC values were 8.05% (t=19.93,P＜0.001) and 4.28% (t=7.04,P＜0.001),respectively.Based on the analysis of cervical cancer death data,the prediction models for urban and rural areas are GM(1,1) and ARIMA(0,1,1),respectively.By 2027,the urban and rural cervical cancer death rates will increase to 7.38/100 000 and 7.73/100 000,respectively.Conclusion:The mortality of cervical cancer among Chinese women has been on the rise for the past 14 years and will continue to increase in the next 10 years,while the mortality of urban women will exceed that of rural women.

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Last Update: 2024-01-30