|Table of Contents|

Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of colorectal adenoma after colonoscopic resection

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2024 03
Page:
496-502
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of colorectal adenoma after colonoscopic resection
Author(s):
ZHANG Jun; SUN Baihe; FANG Yali; ZHANG Yu; LIU Jiaming; ZHUANG Kun
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Xi'an Central Hospital,Shaanxi Xi'an 710004,China.
Keywords:
colorectal adenoma; recurrence after colonoscopic resection; risk factor; Nomogram
PACS:
R735.3+5
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2024.03.019
Abstract:
Objective:To identify the risk factors of colorectal adenoma recurrence after colonoscopic resection,and develop a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of adenoma after colonoscopic resection.Methods:A total of 968 patients who underwent colonoscopic resection of colorectal adenoma and were followed up by colonoscopy were retrospectively analyzed from January,2012 to December,2021 at digestive department in Xi'an Central Hospital.They were divided into training cohort(n=496) and validation cohort(n=472).Multivariate logistic regression was used to screen out the independent risk factors of adenoma recurrence after colonoscopic resection to construct a nomogram.And the model was verified in both training cohort and validation cohort.Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age(OR=1.027,95%CI:1.007~1.048),the number of adenomas(OR=1.232,95%CI:1.123~1.353),and the pathological type of adenomas(OR=2.442,95%CI:1.342~4.441) were independent risk factors of adenoma recurrence after colonoscopic resection(P＜0.01).The nomogram model was constructed based on the multivariate analysis results of the training cohort and verified in both training cohort and validation cohort.The areas under the receiver characteristic curve(ROC) of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.670(95%CI:0.622～0.718) and 0.735(95%CI:0.691～0.780),respectively,with a good discrimination.The calibration curve of two groups showed that the predictive probability of the model was in high consistency with the actual incidence.The decision curve analysis(DCA) suggested that the patient's clinical net benefit level was acceptable.Conclusion:This study constructed and validated a nomogram that accurately predicts the recurrence of colorectal adenoma after colonoscopic resection,based on age,the number of adenomas,and the pathological type of adenomas,which were identified the independent risk factors of adenoma recurrence.The indicators included in this model were very easy to obtain,so that endoscopists can quickly and easily predict the risk of adenoma recurrence after colonoscopic resection.

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Last Update: 2023-12-29