|Table of Contents|

Assessment of performance of the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk in Chinese women:Systematic review and Meta-analysis

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2022 06
Page:
1017-1023
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Assessment of performance of the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk in Chinese women:Systematic review and Meta-analysis
Author(s):
JIN Yujing; GAO Ying; ZHANG Qing
Health Management Centre,Tianjin Medical University General Hospital,Tianjin 300052,China.
Keywords:
breast cancer; risk prediction; Gail model; systematic review; Meta-analysis
PACS:
R737.9
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2022.06.013
Abstract:
Objective:To estimate the discrimination and diagnostic accuracy of the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk in Chinese women by the systematic review and Meta-analysis.Methods:The literature retrieval was conducted by using PubMed,SpringerLink,CNKI and WANFANG.Two investigators independently extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies.The pooled area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI were calculated using the DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model.The pooled sensitivity,specificity,positive likelihood ratio (PLR),negative likelihood ratio (NLR),and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated using the bivariate mixed-effects model.Results:Seventeen literatures were included for analysis.A total of 63 923 adults were surveyed in these studies.The pooled AUC of Gail model was 0.62 (95%CI:0.55~0.69).The pooled sensitivity,specificity,PLR,NLR,and DOR were 0.62 (95%CI:0.40~0.80),0.92 (95%CI:0.85~0.95),7.34 (95%CI:3.96~13.60),0.41 (95%CI:0.24~0.71),and 17.79 (95%CI:6.57~48.12),respectively.In subgroup analysis,the AUC of the northern area was higher than the southern area (0.72 vs 0.58,P＜0.001).Conclusion:The Meta-analysis indicates that the discrimination of the Gail model is moderately acceptable.The specificity of the Gail model is relatively high but sensitivity is poor.

References:

[1] 郑荣寿，孙可欣，张思维，等.2015年中国恶性肿瘤流行情况分析［J］.中华肿瘤杂志，2019，41(1)：19-28. ZHENG RS,SUN KS,ZHANG SW,et al.Report of cancer epidemiology in China,2015［J］.Chin J Oncol,2019,41(1):19-28.
[2] 李佳圆.中国乳腺癌危险因素研究现况及其风险预测模型研究展望［J］.中国循证医学杂志，2020，20(7)：745-748. LI JY.Risk factors for breast cancer and perspective of research of risk prediction models in China［J］.Chin J Evid-based Med,2020,20(7):745-748.
[3] 张蕊，郑黎强，潘国伟.疾病发病风险预测模型的应用与建立［J］.中国卫生统计，2015，32(4)：724-726. ZHANG R,ZHENG LQ,PAN GW.Application and establishment of disease risk prediction model［J］.Chinese Journal of Health Statistics,2015,32(4):724-726.
[4]National Comprehensive Cancer Network.NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology:breast cancer screening and diagnosis［J］.J Natl Compr Canc Netw,2009,7(10):1060-1096.
[5]中国抗癌协会，国家肿瘤临床医学研究中心（天津医科大学肿瘤医院）.中国女性乳腺癌筛查指南［J］.中国肿瘤临床,2019,46(9):430-432. Chinese Anti-Cancer Association,National Cancer Clinical Research Center (Cancer Hospital of Tianjin Medical University).Guidelines of breast cancer screening for Chinese women［J］.Chin J Clin Oncol,2019,46(9):430-432.
[6]LI J,ZHANG BN,FAN JH,et al.A nation-wide multicenter 10-year(1999-2008) retrospective clinical epidemiological study of femalebreast cancer in China［J］.BMC Cancer,2011,11:364.
[7]STANG A.Critical evaluation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for theassessment of the quality of nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses［J］.Eur J Epidemiol,2010,25(9):603-605.
[8]WHITING PF,RUTJES AW,WESTWOOD ME,et al.QUADAS- 2 Group.QUADAS-2:a revised tool for the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies［J］.Ann Intern Med,2011,155(8):529-536.
[9]安丽营.Gail和Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型在吉林省地区应用的初探［D］.吉林：吉林大学,2016. AN LY.Application of Gail and Cuzick-Tyrer model for assessment on breast cancer risk in Jilin Province［D］.Jilin：Jilin University,2016.
[10]周建军，王烨菁，高淑娜，等.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型的应用价值初探［J］.上海预防医学,2014,26(05):236-239. ZHOU JJ,WANG YJ,GAO SN,et al.Application of Gail model for assessment on breast cancer risk［J］.Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine,2014,26(05):236-239.
[11]李建梅，王维，李少英.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型应用初探［J］.中国当代医药,2009,16(14):40-41. LI JM,WANG W,LI SY.Elementary study on application of Gail model breast cancer risk assessment tool［J］.China Modern Medicine,2009,16(14):40-41.
[12]黄俊海.Gail乳腺癌评估模型在乳腺癌社区预防的应用［J］.中外医学研究,2015,13(35):151-152. HUANG JH.Application of Gail breast cancer assessment model in community prevention of breast cancer［J］.Chinese and Foreign Medical Research,2015,13(35):151-152.
[13] 段学葵，罗志勇，陈亮，等.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型测评工具在我国妇女人群中的适用性研究［J］.中国妇幼保健,2014,29(28):4667-4669. DUAN XK,LUO ZY,CHEN L,et al.Application of Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool in Chinese women［J］.Maternal and Child Health Care of China,2014,29(28):4667-4669.
[14]王春亭.Gail乳腺癌模型应用价值及乳腺导管内乳头状肿瘤良恶性危险因素研究［D］.济南：山东大学,2017. WANG CT.The clinical value of Gail model breast cancer risk assessment tool and risk factors of benign and malignant breast intraductal papillary neoplasm［D］.Jinan:Shandong University,2017.
[15]程飞，祁俊峰，刘海阳.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型在临床上的应用价值［J］.国外医学（医学地理分册）,2019,40(02):137-139，143. CHENG F,QI JF,LIU HY.Clinical application value of Gail breast cancer risk assessment model［J］.Foreign Medical Science Section of Medgeogarphy,2019,40(02):137-139，143.
[16]王越，徐林，沈春健，等.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型的临床应用［J］.国际病理科学与临床杂志,2010,30(06):473-475. WANG Y,XU L,SHEN CJ,et al.Clinical application of Gail model in the assessment of breast cancer risk［J］.International Journal of Pathology and Clinical Medicine,2010,30(06):473-475.
[17]潘晓平，金曦，丁辉，等.北京、广东两地妇女乳腺癌危险度评价模型的初步研究［J］.中国妇幼保健,2009,24(11):1469-1471. PAN XP,JIN X,DING H,et al.Preliminary study on risk evaluation model of breast cancer in Beijing and Guangdong［J］.Maternal and Child Health Care of China,2009,24(11):1469-1471.
[18]刘美辰.Gail模型联合超声BI-RADS分级对乳腺癌风险评估的价值［D］.大连：大连医科大学，2019. LIU MC.The value of combining Gail model with ultrasonic BI-RADS classification in assessing breast cancer risk［D］.Dalian:Daliang Medical University,2019.
[19]石颖芳，张利群，徐胜昔.乳腺密度联合Gail模型对乳腺癌诊断的临床价值［J］.中国医学创新,2014,11(33):132-134. SHI YF,ZHANG LQ,XU SX.The value of Gail model combined with breast density in the prediction of breast cancer for women in China［J］.Medical Innovation of China,2014,11(33):132-134.
[20]荣磊，李欢，王恩礼.深圳市女性乳腺癌风险评估模型的研究［J］.中国妇幼保健,2016,31(03):470-473. RONG L,LI H,WANG EL.Study on breast cancer risk assessment model for women in Shenzhen［J］.Maternal and Child Health Care of China,2016,31(03):470-473.
[21]杜沛玲.潮汕地区女性乳腺癌相关因素及风险评估模型［D］.汕头：汕头大学,2017. DU PL.Associated factors and risk assessment model of breast cancer among women in Chaoshan region［D］.Shantou:Shantou Univerisity,2017.
[22]刘丽媛.乳腺癌危险因素及高危人群评分筛选模型的初步研究［D］.济南：山东大学,2010. LIU LY.A pilot study on risk factors and risk assessment score screening model for high-risk population of breast cancer［D］.Jinan：Shandong University,2010.
[23]胡建英.Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型在浙东沿海地区妇女中的适用性研究［D］.杭州：浙江大学,2015. HU JY.Research on the applicability of Gail model in the assessment of breast cancer risk in Zhejiang eastern coastal women［D］.Hangzhou：Zhejiang University,2015.
[24]周丹，陈佩贤，杨树清，等.珠三角地区女性乳腺癌危险因素及风险评估模型的临床研究［J］.中国医刊,2021,56(1):37-40. ZHOU D,CHEN PX,YANG SQ,et al.Preliminary study on risk factors and risk assessment prediction model for female breast cancer in the delta regions of Pearl River Delta［J］.Chin Med,2021,56(1):37-40.
[25]ZHAO Y,XIONG P,MCCULLOUGH LE,et al.Comparison of breast cancer risk predictive models and screening strategies for Chinese women［J］.J Womens Health (Larchmt),2017,26(3):294-302.
[26]GAIL MH,BRINTON LA,BYAR DP,et al.Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually［J］.J Natl Cancer Inst,1989,81(24):1879-1886.
[27]SCHONFELD SJ,PEE D,GREENLEE RT,et al.Effect of changing breast cancer incidence rates on the calibration of the Gail model［J］.J Clin Oncol,2010,28(14):2411-2417.
[28]CHAY WY,ONG WS,TAN PH,et al.Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women［J］.Breast Cancer Res,2012,14(1):R19.
[29]武珊珊，杨智荣，董圣杰，等.网络Meta分析研究进展系列(九)：预测模型的网络Meta分析［J］.中国循证心血管医学杂志,2021,13(2):133-138. WU SS,YANG ZR,DONG SJ,et al.Advances in methodology of network meta-analysis (9):Network Meta-analysis of prediction models［J］.Chin J Evid Based Cardiovasc Med,2021,13(2):133-138.
[30]WANG X,HUANG Y,LI L,et al.Assessment of performance of the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk:a systematic review and meta-analysis with trial sequential analysis［J］.Breast Cancer Res,2018,20(1):18.
[31]张雪，董晓平，管雅喆，等.女性乳腺癌流行病学趋势及危险因素研究进展［J］.肿瘤防治研究,2021,48(1):87-92. ZHANG X,DONG XP,GUAN YZ,et al.Research progress on epidemiological trend and risk factors of female breast cancer［J］.Cancer Res Treat,2021,48(1):87-92.
[32]陶苹，胡耀月，黄源，等.亚裔女性乳腺癌危险因素的Meta分析［J］.中华流行病学杂志，2011,32(2):164-169. TAO P,HU YY,HUANG Y,et al.Risk factors of breast cancer in Asian women:a Meta-analysis［J］.Chin J Epidemiol,2011,32(2):164-169.
[33]郑艳敏，沈月平，刘银梅，等.中国女性乳腺癌危险因素Meta分析［J］.中国公共卫生,2012,28(12):1645-1648. ZHENG YM,SHEN YP,LIU YM,et al.Meta-analysis of breast cancer risk factors in Chinese women［J］.Chin J Public Health,2012,28(12):1645-1648.
[34]TYRER J,DUFFY SW,CUZICK J.A breast cancer prediction model incorporating familial and personal risk factors［J］.Stat Med,2004,23(7):1111-1130.
[35]张乐，徐胜昔，郭翔取，等.Tyrer-Cuzick模型联合SNPs位点在江西地区乳腺癌诊断中应用研究［J］.医学信息,2018,31(24):131-133. ZHANG L,XU SX,GUO XQ,et al.Application of Tyrer-Cuzick model combined with SNPs locus in the diagnosis of breast cancer in Jiangxi area［J］.Medical Information,2018,31(24):131-133.
[36]ZHENG W,WEN W,GAO YT,et al.Genetic and clinical predictors for breast cancer risk assessment and stratification among Chinese women［J］.J Natl Cancer Inst,2010,102(13):972-981.
[37]DAI J,HU Z,JIANG Y,et al.Breast cancer risk assessment with five independent genetic variants and two risk factors in Chinese women［J］.Breast Cancer Res,2012,14(1):R17.
[38]黄育北，宋丰举，陈可欣.全基因组关联研究在乳腺癌筛查中的应用价值初探［J］.中华流行病学杂志,2019,40(6):713-718. HUANG YB,SONG FJ,CHEN KX.Application values of genome-wide association studies in screening for breast cancer［J］.Chin J Epidemiol,2019,40(6):713-718.

Memo

Memo:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71804124）；国家自然科学基金（编号：71804124）；天津市滨海新区卫生健康委员会科技项目（编号：2019BWKQ031）
Last Update: 1900-01-01