|Table of Contents|

Application of GM(1,1)model in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in China

Journal Of Modern Oncology[ISSN:1672-4992/CN:61-1415/R]

Issue:
2022 05
Page:
899-902
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Application of GM(1,1)model in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in China
Author(s):
WEN Jing; YIN Chengyu; LIAO Guowei; WANG Yuan; ZHANG Jie
The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University,Sichuan Luzhou 646000,China.
Keywords:
incidence of thyroid cancer; GM(1; 1); prediction
PACS:
R736.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4992.2022.05.030
Abstract:
Objective：To explore the feasibility of appliying GM(1,1)in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in the different areas and genders in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy.Methods:The cancer incidence data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report（2008 to 2018）that published were retrieved.Basing on the models to predict the indence trend of tryroid cancer in the next five years.Results:The models were x(1)(k+1)=37.532 6e0.1152k-33.232 6（C=0.208 3,P=1.00）,x(1)(k+1)=15.625 7e0.1239k-13.645 7（C=0.196 9,P=1.00）,x(1)(k+1)=59.741 9e0.113k-53.061 9（C=0.215 0,P=1.00）,x(1)(k+1)=35.445 1e0.1408k-30.225 1（C=0.151 9,P=1.00）,x(1)(k+1)=16.701 6e0.1294k-15.021 6（C=0.491 8,P=1.00）.Conclusion：The predictive models were more fitting in China,different sexs and city region,excepting the country area.The incidence trend of thyroid cancer in the next five years show continued growth.Countermeasures should be adopted to prevent thyroid cancer.

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Last Update: 2022-01-27